This MU is about patience, you can't force your way in. The problem I get from what your saying is that your trying too hard to get your offense going. Rog can veat your dive kicks with Cr. HP, so you have to play a more footies game.
In the beginning of the round if you see him walk back or charge, build some meter with palm. Eventually he'll have to come cuz he won't want to get hit by a genei jin combo. Your command throw is essential in this MU. You're going to have to make him worry about it. Work your way forward with St. MP > LP shoulder (once) just to get close. After see how he reacts; if he jabs do an instant DK and combo. If he sits, add on pressure by doing the St. MP again. Or bait by doing a LK DK whiff.
Once you get in, you're going to have to mix him up, i.e. DK crossups, command throws, etc. Basically once you get pass him defense it should be an easy fight. Just keep him guessing, and be sure to punish when opportunity arises. If you see him whiff U1 dash twice and try hitting him with Lunge punch, trying to punish with U1 is a bad idea it's too slow.
St. HK (spaced correctly) I would be careful using this.
Hit confirm into ultra (i.e. TC5 > EX lunge > U1)
From our matches last night, don't use EX Shoulder too much. It's not worth the meter loss and it's not safe on block. I suggest using lunge instead if you're going for knockdown. SAVE THAT METER!!!!!