Tierlisting: 4-6
Personal Matchup Level: 3/10
This is not a favorable matchup for Fuerte. Balrog's fasts jabs can beat out almost everything Fuerte tries to do. And if the Balrog knows to only do his rush punches from up close, it makes it difficult for Fuerte to counter. Also, if he basically turtles out the match, good luck getting in cause his cr.HP will AA anything you do and basically, you will have to work hard for that win.
General Strategy
3/4 to Full Screen -
Balrog needs to be up close to do damage. He can use his dash punches to get in but no respectful Balrog will since they are basically setting themselves up for a punish. Beware of the usual building of meter with LK Guac. If you do that, they can react with a dash punch and you won't have enough time to counter it. Otherwise, not much else at this distance to speak of. If they do a rush punch, you can counter with either ultra (if you have it stocked) or on reaction to their start up, you can slide to knock them down (risky), or you can do back Hab Dash and use Tostada.
Mid Screen/Poking Distance -
Normally, this is the distance that Fuerte is good. However, in this case, it's quite the opposite. Balrog's st.HP and st.HK reach from half the screen which is insane! Not to mention his dash punches are fast enough to allow him to get in. You can still counter his Turn Punch with a throw or a Back Hab Dash Tortilla/Splash though. Do not jump in. He will destroy you with either st.MP or cr.HP (and that's freakin' damaging!). Continue running back and forth to bait his far reaching normals or rush punches so you can react fast enough with a special. Special note, if you have fast reactions and can read your opponent, you can EX Hab Dash through his st.HP or st.HK into slide. Also, if you're uncomfortable with baiting with your Hab Dashing, walk back and forth and use st.MP to counter poke his normals. Empty Hab Dash to get your mix up going if you hit.
Close Distance -
Balrog's jab can beat out everything you try to do...it's just that good and Fuerte is just that bad. Even if he does a dash attack, Fuerte can't do much to punish except if you have Ultra stocked (which sucks cause most of the match you're stuck eating chip damage). Try to get out and get to half screen/full screen again. Do not try to have a footsie battle, you will lose.
Ultra of Choice
Ultra 2: El Fuerte Ultra Spark
Even though you can use Ultra 1 on reaction to a Dash Punch and grab them, Ultra 2 is far superior in this matchup. You can do the same as Ultra 1, grab them as Balrog is dashing, and you can punish them on block which Ultra 1 can't do. Make them pay for not using his Dash Punches safely.